Monday, September 14, 2020

Smallness

I have been giving a lot of thought to the Corona Virus plague.  I am especially interested in how Israel stacks up in handling the pandemic compared to, for instance, the United States.  Granted, these two countries are incredibly different, but the USA seems to be what everyone compares themselves to, so I thought that would be my yard stick.

I have heard and read a lot of statistics.  Someone recently told me, for instance, that Israelis are four times more likely to contract the virus than those in the USA.  Really?

So what's the difference?  I think the major obvious difference could be size.

Israel is small, consisting of one State with one set of rules.  The USA is huge, made up of many States, with many sets of rules.

One might think, logically speaking, that the USA would have a bigger problem, having multiple approaches in place to limit the effects of the virus.

But to my mind Israel also has a major disadvantage in comparison to the USA.  Smallness.
So let's do a comparison.

Anyone who has been to Israel can attest to the fact that stores and "supermarkets"  have very narrow aisles, and therefore get crowded very quickly.  The maintenance staff runs those huge floor cleaning machines around the store all day, making it even tighter.  And they are eternally pushing those huge self-propelled forklift-like hand-trucks around the store re-stocking amid the shopping carts and cleaning machines.

Social distancing under these conditions is impossible.  Compare that with the wide aisles in American supermarkets, where they clean the floors and re-stock primarily at night, so that customers can actually make it through the aisles.

There is also a cultural difference.  In Israel, your personal space is much less sacrosanct.  People are used to being in close contact with strangers without even noticing it.  You see this everywhere; in stores, public transportation, public spaces.  Keeping one's distance is an alien concept. So it is much harder to institute social distancing.  On top of that, Israelis have a major independence streak, and a well-earned reputation for flouting regulations in general.

So it is interesting to note that the statistics seem to stack up in Israel's favor.

Here are the comparative numbers I found on:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.

The rankings below are worst to best, i.e #1 is worse than #2.  These statistics are as of Sept. 14, 2020.
Country       deaths/million   ranking        cases/million   ranking       tests/million    ranking
USA                 584.52             #10              20,243              #11            278,828          #197
Israel               121.30             #39              17,026              #14            297,533          #199

So, assuming these numbers are accurate, Israel has comparable ratings in terms of cases/million and tests/million, but despite that has a remarkably better rate of deaths/million.

In other words, the good news is that Israelis may have a comparable chance of being tested for or contracting the virus, but are much more likely to survive.

So I don't buy into the whole panic mind-set that is pushing Israel into another lock-down that will push people into poverty and desperation.  It is remarkable that Israel is doing as well as it is, given the levels of "smallness" outlined above.  I'm sure Israel could do better, but I don't believe that a general shut-down is called for.

One could argue that even a single death, or a single new case, is unacceptable.  And I don't disagree.  But that is not a likely occurrence given even the best of circumstances.

So what's the deal?  I suspect that the so-called "government" of Israel is paralyzed by inner conflict within the coalition, and constrained by their "small-mindedness".  I personally refer to the government as "Bibi's Bundle of Back-biting Bickering Belligerent Bungling Bozos".  They are constantly scrambling for political advantage, resigning or threatening to do so, and unwilling to put animosities aside and think out a clear plan.  Israel was better off when the government was in "lock-down" before the last absurd election.

Not a bad idea.  I think perhaps all Members of Knesset, and certainly all Government Ministers, should lose all of their public and private income, and be limited to within 500 meters of their homes, until they learn to play nicely and do something effective.  For the rest of Israelis, masks and social distancing will do.  Very curious to see how long that lock-down would last.

But despite Israel's ridiculous government, maybe one set of rules, however faulty, is better than 50.  So Israelis should feel pretty good that, despite the close quarters, Israel is doing better than most countries, including the USA.

Of course, they don't have these problems in the USA where there is perfect peace and harmony.

Or is it just me?